And now, a voice from the future:
Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to introduce you to the NFC’s No. 1 seed, the 13-4 Atlanta Falcons …
Seems insane, right? The Falcons? Led by Arthur Smith, who seems hell-bent on making sure potential superstars Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London touch the ball as little as possible? The team that is currently 4-3, and has the 21st ranked offense and 22nd ranked defense by DVOA?
Yep. Those Atlanta Falcons.
I mean c’mon dude pic.twitter.com/1LqDHRtyEE
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 25, 2023
Do I really think the Falcons are going to end up as the No. 1 seed? Of course not. But … this is who they play the rest of the way: Titans, Vikings, Cardinals, Saints (twice), Jets, Bucs, Panthers, Colts, Bears.
How many of those teams are going to beat the Falcons?
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In the NFL betting streets, you can still get Atlanta at 115 at BetRivers to win the NFC South, and the team’s win total is set at 9.5 at FanDuel at 116 on the over. Are the Falcons going 6-4 against those teams above? On paper, a hard yes.
Another team with an awfully easy schedule the rest of the way — and another team in a terrible division — is the Houston Texans. Their remaining schedule: Panthers, Bucs, Bengals, Cardinals, Jaguars, Broncos, Jets, Titans (twice), Browns, and Colts.
The on-paper losses to come are against the Jaguars, and they’ll probably be underdogs against the Bengals, Browns, and maybe Jets. The rest? They’ll be favored. Is 10-7 so far-fetched here? Their win total is 8.5 at -110 at Caesars. And if you’re feeling very frisky, they’re 450 at BetMGM to win the AFC South.
This is a top 10 QB in the NFL RIGHT NOW.
You cannot name 10 guys who have been better than CJ Stroud so far pic.twitter.com/MAqjoMFO7Z
— Jacob (@Stroud4ROTY) October 27, 2023
There’s a lot of football left, and while our brains are telling us we know who’s up and who’s down, a look at the rest-of-season schedule may shine a light at which teams might go sideways from here.
Of course, it works both ways. If you’re a Bengals booster, you may want to turn the page to 2024. That schedule is brutal.
Speaking of brutal …
The 1000 or more parlay of the week
And we’re 0-for-7. Am I worried? Not yet. Plenty of runway left.
This week, we’re back at DraftKings and I’m going with over 43.5 in the Eagles-Commanders game, the Texans outright over the Panthers at -185, the Falcons -2.5 over the Titans, the Ravens -485 over the Cardinals, the Chiefs -325 over the Broncos, and over 44 in the Saints-Colts game for a good-looking 1555 number.
Rationale: The Eagles can hit the over on their own, and the Commanders can finish the job in garbage time; I’ll be taking the over in Colts games until further notice; the Falcons will be facing Will Levis; and the Texans, Chiefs, and Ravens are all objectively much better teams than the teams they’re facing.
This is science, dude.
The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
Second loss in a row — the Bills did me in against the Patriots — which knocks my record down to 4-3.
This week, at BetMGM, it’s the Chiefs -1 over the Broncos, the Patriots 15.5 in Miami, and the Lions -2 over the Raiders. The Chiefs and Lions are obvious, and as for the Patriots … well, it’s just a lot of points, and Belichick kept it relatively close in the first meeting this year between these teams, so … yeah. Not thrilled with it, but it is what is.
Favorite that makes me nervous
Fell to 3-4 as I said the Ravens made me nervous against the Lions. (OK, so I had a bad week last week. Life goes on.)
This week, the favorite that has me shaking is Dallas -6 over the Rams. The Cowboys offense has been struggling, the Cowboys defense is clearly not as good without Leighton Vander Esch and Trevon Diggs, and Sean McVay can out-coach Mike McCarthy with his eyes closed.
Player props I like
OK, it was not a good week. Went 0-for-3. Down to 13-14.
This week’s dance card:
Breece Hall, over 67.5 rushing yards, -115 at BetMGM: The Giants are giving up over 137 yards on the ground per game this year. End analysis.
Alvin Kamara, over 4.5 receptions, -115 at bet365: Kamara’s target count/reception count this year, game by game, is 14/13, 3/3, 8/7, 14/12. End analysis.
Josh Downs over 3.5 receptions, -155 at bet365: In the five games Downs has played with Gardner Minshew on the field, he has hit this number every time. End analysis.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
How about you just stop asking, and if I win, I’ll let you know, m’kay?
My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
Had the Lions last week. I HAD A BAD WEEK. Down to 3-4. OK, this week, it’s the over in the Birds-Commanders game. Let’s go.
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