If Ice Cube and Ice Spice had a baby, that baby would be me.
And while the above is mostly an excuse to drop in some music videos later, it doesn’t make it any less true: I’m colder than a penguin in a freezer on New Year’s Day in Antarctica during a cold snap with someone dropping ice cubes down my back while singing Cold as Ice by Foreigner.
Yeah. I’m cold.
My online sports betting? Cold. My DFS play? Flipping freezing.
Now granted — such is the gambler’s life. We all know this. And it’s especially true for large-field DFS tourney players like me, where months of losses are wiped out with one big win.
But right now, this NFL season, especially these last few weeks? Nope. Not even close. Just … wrong, over and over and over again.
It has not been a good day.
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At this point, and at the risk of mixing movie quotes with forced-fed music videos, this is my most desperate hour. Help me, Captain Jack Andrews! You’re my only hope.
“I think narrowing your focus is the best practical advice for a DFS player,” professional bettor Andrews told me. “Often players become overconfident from winning and tend to want to find more things to bet on. That leads to them having less focus on things they actually have skill on. You might also want to narrow your focus relative to the number of bettors you are competing against. Focus on smaller pools.”
Andrews noted I’m far from alone in this little corner of misery; he felt the same way three years ago, so much so he felt compelled to put a video together to help others.
In addition to urging them to narrow their focus, Andrews also tells people in the freezer to take advantage of comps, look for lower-hanging fruit, eliminate bad habits, and of course, to just give up for a while.
All good advice, and all worth watching in the video for a more in-depth look.
In my case, I’m literally a road underdog to win anything this particular week, as I’m flying across the country for a family affair and will be putting in my DFS lineups from an Airbnb. I know I won’t have as much time to concentrate, won’t have the time to do my normal research. Maybe that’s what I need. Maybe I’ve gone too deep studying Cover 2. Maybe I need to take a small step back to take a giant leap forward.
Or maybe I should just watch Ice Spice and Nicki Minaj tear it up.
The 1000 or more parlay of the week
First off, these — and other lines for the remainder of the column — might be a little stale by the time you read this. Had to put this together Wednesday and Thursday due to my travel plans. So with that out of the way …
And now I’m 0-10 at this 1000 or more parlay thing and getting a smidge worried. Tried a pair of SGPs last week surrounding the Titans-Bucs game, and — much like I laid out above — boy was I wrong.
This week, let’s give ESPN BET a try: Cowboys -10.5 at the Panthers, Jaguars -7 at home against the Titans, Lions -7.5 at home against the Bears, Seahawks -1 over the Rams in L.A., and over 41.5 in the 49ers-Bucs game. This comes in at 2552. I’m going for it.
Rationale? I think we’ve reached the wheat and chaff portion of the NFL season. The four favorites are clearly the superior teams, and as such, I’m betting they will all cover. As for the over in the 49ers-Bucs game, both offenses actually set up very nicely against the opposing defense. Besides, the Niners could get to 41.5 themselves.
The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
Fifth loss in a row! Terrible. Down to 4-6. Barely profitable at 160 a pop. Only saving grace is I assume everyone else had the Bengals and Ravens in their teasers.
This week, at BetMGM, I’m taking the Lions -1.5 against the Bears, the Dolphins -6.5 against the Raiders, and the Bills -1 against the Jets. What could go wrong …
Favorite that makes me nervous
Hey, got something right and moved up to 4-6 as I said the Saints made me nervous against the Vikings. This one was never in doubt, and these Vikings — with their aggressive defense and Josh Dobbs adding some extra spice to the offense — are all of a sudden kinda interesting.
This week, the Chargers giving three points to the Packers in Green Bay makes me nervous. An underachieving warm-weather team going to Green Bay? Not a great look.
Player props I like
Went 0-3 last week, because of course. Now down to 16-20. Being that I have to file this early, there’s precious little out there I like currently, but I will sprinkle a bit on …
Jahmyr Gibbs, over 40.5 rushing yards at -110 at bet365: Did they not get the memo this is, at worst, a split backfield? Gibbs should crush this number.
Trey McBride, anytime touchdown, 240 at Caesars: The guy is getting tons of looks, and the Texans have been roasted by tight ends all year.
Trey McBride received a whopping 46% of the Cardinals first-read targets in Week 8
That’s the single-highest FR share by a TE in a game this season @FantasyPtsData
88% route share (huge for TE) ranks second (2.26) only to Travis Kelce (2.97) among TE in yards per route run
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) October 31, 2023
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
Second week in a row, bunch of entries, zero cashed. I told you — I’m ice right now.
My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
Down to 4-6 after “slamming the over” in the Titans-Bucs game. Gonna go stick my head in the freezer.
This week … another over. Why not. Monday night, the 45.5 number in the Chiefs-Eagles game looks too low to me, even in this current offensive economy.
John Sommers is a distinguished figure in the world of gambling expertise, known for his deep knowledge and insightful analysis of the gaming industry. As a seasoned author, he has contributed extensively to the reputable gambling news site, TwinCasinos, focusing on providing valuable insights to English-speaking gamblers worldwide.
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