Clayton Tune. Jaren Hall. Aidan O’Connell. Ricky Montgomery. Tyson Bagent. Brett Rypien.
All of the above are quarterbacks slated to start NFL football games this Sunday. It’s bonkers how bad it’s gotten, and this doesn’t even include Zach Wilson, Tyler Heinicke, Gardner Minshew, Mac Jones, Baker Mayfield, and Jordan Love.
By the way, fun little fact: You can rearrange the letters in “Hall, Tune, Bagent, and Rypien” to spell “Playable, entering hunt,” which is basically what all these quarterbacks will be doing Sunday. Sure, they’re playable, but they are also definitely entering the hunt. Defenses, lips, licked.
Let’s break down those six above real quick. Sportsbook odds in this case courtesy of FanDuel
Arizona’s Clayton Tune, 8.5-point dogs in Cleveland: Well, probably it will be Tune, and if it is, he “sometimes hesitates” on his throws, according to profootballnetwork.com’s scouting profile. That should be just fine against the Browns defense.
QB Clayton Tune realizing his first career start is against Myles Garrett pic.twitter.com/ITkaRmEHbb
— McNeil (@Reflog_18) October 31, 2023
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Minnesota’s Jaren Hall, 4-point dogs in Atlanta: Honestly, I’m curious what this BYU product can do. I’ve read he’s super athletic and wouldn’t be surprised to see a bunch of scrambling. Actually excited for this.
Las Vegas’ Aidan O’Connell, -1.5-point favorites(!) at home against the Giants: Well, he didn’t look terrible when he played earlier in the year, and you have to figure the Raiders will be excited to not have Josh McDaniels around anymore, so, sure, silver and black attack.
Ricky Montgomery: Does not exist. Just seeing if you’re paying attention.
Chicago’s Tyson Bagent, 8.5-point dogs in New Orleans: I mean, we’ve seen Bagent the last two weeks. Are we impressed? We are not impressed.
Tyson Bagent goes deep pic.twitter.com/inRbfkA3ol
— Blake Garman (@FrostedBlakes34) October 30, 2023
Los Angeles Rams’ Brett Rypien, 3-point dogs in Green Bay: I mean, he’s played some NFL games before and didn’t look terrible. Plus he’s got Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua, which you can rearrange to spell “aura poop punk cupcake,” which is pretty awesome if you ask me.
Ricky Montgomery, please, take it away!
The 1000 or more parlay of the week
And we’re 0-for-8. Didn’t really get the job done last week. Back to the drawing board. Just need two of these to hit for the year, and we’re good.
Or … one big one.
This week, I’m big one’ing at DraftKings.
Dolphins outright over the Chiefs. Vikings outright over the Falcons, over 41 in the Washington-New England game, Jets outright over the Chargers, 2541. Let’s go.
Rationale: Are we sure the Chiefs are OK, and are we sure we want to bet against Tyreek taking over the game? Are we sure the Kevin O’Connell-coached Vikings can’t rally and defeat the Arthur Smith-coached Falcons? Are we sure the Patriots aren’t smart enough to light up the scoreboard against the Commanders’ “defense”? Are we sure the Chargers can win on the road, in the cold, when they’re willing to give Breece Hall room to run?
So, yes, three moneyline underdogs and an over in a New England Patriots game. What could go wrong?
The on-paper, no doubt, three-team teaser that’s bound to lose
Third loss in a row — the Chiefs did me, and the rest of the betting world, dirty — which knocks the record down to a still-profitable 4-4.
This week, at BetMGM, I’m taking the Browns -2.5 over the visiting Cards, the Saints -2.5 over the visiting Bears, and the Seahawks 12 in Baltimore. Cleveland and New Orleans are obvious plays here, and I think the way both the Seahawks and Ravens play — long drives, plenty of running, and short passes — lends itself to a close game.
Favorite that makes me nervous
Fell to 3-5 as I said the Cowboys made me nervous against the Rams. That may have been the worst take of the year. Eeesh.
This week, there is one favorite that is jumping out at me as a “Hey, wait, why are they favorites in the first place? I’m not nervous. I’m simply confused.”
And that favorite is the Chargers giving 3.5 points to the Jets in New Jersey. This is exactly the type of game the Chargers lose. And don’t look now, but Zach Wilson is actually starting to resemble a real NFL quarterback. Plus, the Chargers defense is always going to allow teams to run on them, and that’s usually OK, except when it’s Breece Hall, who might do some nasty things Monday night. I don’t know. This seems like a terrible spot for the Chargers.
Player props I like
Yeah, it was not a good week. Went 1-for-3. Down to 14-16.
This week …
Mac Jones, over 219.5 yards, -113 BetRivers: Washington cannot, has not, and seemingly will not defend the pass. Is the Patriots braintrust smart enough to take advantage? I’m betting on it.
Breece Hall, over 56.5 rushing yards, -110, bet365: This seems way too low, period.
Taysom Hill, over 15.5 rushing yards, -121, BetRivers: The Saints have seemingly unleashed Hill.
Jaren Hall, over 16.5 rushing yards, -110 bet365: Hall is a runner. This line is simply way too low.
Demario Douglas over 41.5 receiving yards, -115 at DraftKings: The de facto top option for the Patriots.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
No, sir, I did not.
My mortal lock five-star only for my best customers can’t lose guaranteed best bet of the week
All right, up to 4-4, the Eagles and Commanders over took us home. This week, mortal lock is the … oh, god, it’s the Patriots -3 over the Commanders. Heaven help us all.
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